Good news in Florida for Bush

Jay over at The Horserace Blog has a very detailed and compelling analysis of the current state of the campaign in Florida. Based on current registration data compared against the results in the 2000 election, Jay feel safe predicting a Bush win in Florida. For those worried about the tight polling data, the last paragraph is for you:

Note for all of you poll watchers, if Kerry loses Florida by 100,000 -- he will lose it by about 2%. This means that you will see pro-Kerry polls between now and election day. It is a statistical inevitability. Roughly one in every six polls, actually, will be pro-Kerry. So, don't worry about the polls! Just keep your eyes on my rolling, unweighted average (which currently shows the likelihood of a Bush FL victory at >90%).

If you are a Bush supporter, read the whole thing for maximum feel-good effect. For Kerry supporters I suggest a good antacid.