Tuesday, November 02, 2004

Be of good cheer

When John Kerry's own campaign pollster is this gloomy, you know things can't be all that great for Kerry's chances:
We often point to the fact that a majority of Americans say the country is seriously off on the wrong track. Fifty-two percent hold that view. But when Bush Sr. was defeated, 72 percent thought the country was seriously off on the wrong track.

Only 39 percent give the economy a positive rating, a problem for the incumbent.

Yet in 1992, only about 10 percent were positive about the economy.

Taking all that and more into account, an expert forecasting model suggests that Bush will get 51.6 percent of the two-party vote.

So while Bush faces formidable obstacles, not the least of which is Kerry himself, the senator also faces a strong candidate. Bush is weaker than some other incumbents but much stronger than those who have been defeated.

Read the whole thing, and be encouraged. This assessment is from the man who knows the true state of John Kerry's campaign better than any other person. If he were any more depressed, he'd be openly predicting a Bush win. A good sign, if you ask me.